AGRICULTURAL DYNAMICS IN THE EU AND THE RAW MATERIAL SUPER CYCLE

Abstract

This study aims to e plore the impact of the Raw Material Supercycle (RMSC) on agricultural dynamics
in the European Union (EU), focusing on key commodity crops such as wheat, maize, barley,
sunflower, and the unorthodo but strategic choice of potatoes. The inclusion of potatoes is particularly
relevant due to their dietary significance, adaptability to diverse growing conditions, and their
potential as a substitute crop during periods of raw material volatility. The research investigates how
global raw material trends influence crop production, e port values, and market structures within
the EU. Moreover, it seeks to identify key domestic and policy-driven factors that moderate the
RMSC’s effects on the agricultural sector.
Methodology:
Utilizing a multi-method research approach, the study combines regression models with comparative
analysis and trend analysis. Regression models are applied to assess the influence of the RMSC on
production volumes and e port values of wheat, maize, barley, sunflower, and potatoes. The study
contrasts the performance of these crops during different phases of the super cycle, identifying key
dependencies and divergent trends across the EU. urthermore, the study tracks changes in the areas
under harvest, yields, and production levels for each crop, providing a nuanced understanding of
agricultural dynamics in light of global raw material fluctuations.
Key indings:
The study reveals significant correlation between the RMSC and the performance of EU commodity
crops. or instance, while rance and Italy continue to dominate the e port market for wheat, Bulgaria
has emerged as a rising producer, with strong potential for future dominance in this sector. The
choice of potatoes, often overlooked in traditional studies, proved insightful, as their unique growing
fle ibility and substitutive value contributes to mitigating the impact of raw material price volatility.
Moreover, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) plays important, but limited in effects role in
moderating the global super cycle’s effects by providing subsidies that buffer internal market dynamics.
Originality/Scientific Novelty:
This research provides an in-depth analysis of how global raw material cycles influence regional
agricultural systems, specifically addressing the unorthodo yet strategic role of potatoes. By integrating
crop-specific performance during different RMSC phases, it contributes a new understanding
of localized agricultural vulnerabilities and resilience.
Practical Value/Implications:

The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in crafting agricultural strategies
that can anticipate and mitigate the effects of future super cycle phases. Recommendations include
targeted investments in crop diversity and substitutable crops, with implications for strengthening
agricultural resilience across the EU.